Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific: 21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10). A visual of my prediction can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Geez Andrew, that's a little too ''wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: '''20 '''depressions, '''18 '''named storms, '''12 '''hurricanes, and '''5 '''major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem ''very ''unlikely IMO. Steven09876 05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys. Steve820 20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!) Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) Pre-season predictions About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :Maintaining my forecast from above. AndrewTalk To Me 20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to '''20-24' named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992. Steve820 03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC) May 90E.INVEST Aoi:First of the season Models are bullish on a hurricane into MX next week. Quite consistent as well. Gonna be interesting. Right now, it's located around 100W and is not suppose to move much. YE [[Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:18, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :Already?! Wow. It's not on the NHC TWO yet though, but hopefully it pops up on the outlook and becomes the earliest EPac storm I've ever seen! This season's about to be a wild ride, this El Nino might cause an extremely active season to look forward to... Steve820 21:30, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :I hope this can become something non-destructive! AndrewTalk To Me 22:30, May 4, 2014 (UTC) ::It could be a rainmaker due to its slight motio. It'll more likely be a high end TS then a cane IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 22:49, May 4, 2014 (UTC) :: moderate to me 50 to 60 mph.Allanjeffs 07:00, May 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::This probs won't develop actually. Too much shear IMO. It's a mess right now. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 21:24, May 5, 2014 (UTC) 90.E INVEST STWO and Invested at 50% in 2 and 5 days. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 21:29, May 6, 2014 (UTC) :It may not develop. Conditions are unfavorable closer to the Mexican coast. AndrewTalk To Me 22:24, May 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Having large-scale convective activity this early in the season might be a good indication of the similar storms to come. So many seasons have been busts recently and this year might change that. The East Pacific is generally very tamed outside the seasonal constraints. If this does form soon, it could very well become the earliest recorded formation in the proper. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:01, May 7, 2014 (UTC) :::This shouldn't become anything big. It could still become a named TS though, and beat the record for earliest named storm in the EPac ever! (This doesn't include CPac) The current record is Alma in 1990, which formed on May 12. Future-Amanda could very well break that record to pieces, I've never seen an EPac AOI before May 10!! But if it does develop it'll only be a weakling, but at least it'll be notable for its formation date. And I agree with HurricaneSpin, this might be a sign of a hyperactive season to come! Here we go!!! We're about to launch this roller-coaster we call the "2014 Pacific hurricane season"!! :O Steve820 02:04, May 7, 2014 (UTC) :::Might not develop there is a lot of dry air in its western side and upper level winds to its north so its trap.. and if it develop it might only be a weak depression.Allanjeffs 18:09, May 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::HS, agreed, espcailly given that El Nino's tend to have late starts. I wouldn't say the past few seasons have been busts, and I think 2012 and 2013 did a very good job with what little they had. Welcome back to the forum though. As for EPAc AOI's before May 10, they sometimes happen. They are more common in the CPHC warning zone which is part of the basin. This invest looks better now, but time is almost up. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:06, May 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::It's still at '''50%' for the next 48 hours and 5 days. Maybe it won't develop after all, due to the fact that it's about to get ripped apart by unfavorable conditions. If it does become something in the very little time it has left, then it will only be a weak depression probably. I'll be very shocked to see a TS out of this puny invest, even though the invest will be remembered for its unusual timing, coming so early in the season. P.S. Welcome back to the forums HurricaneSpin! :)Steve820 01:11, May 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::Thanks for the warm welcomes! Anyway tonight will be probably the last chance for it to develop. It looks slightly better on the satellite images just as the sunlight advanced onward. This diurnal convective cycle will be its last chance to form. Formation of Amanda is unlikely though, it has to bump up 10 knots before attaining TS winds. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:00, May 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Looks like it is about to move inland. Oh well, it had its chance. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 11:58, May 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Now at near 0%. Might as well call it quits from here. I didn't really expect this one to become Amanda, shear was catching up to it before it had a chance to get going. It's true that El Nino years sometimes have late starts, as 2009 showed us, but they generally have more intense storms than non-El Nino years and can have very nasty storms in late September/October. Hopefully that won't happen this year though, the best El Nino years are the ones where everything misses land. :) 'Ryan1000' 15:15, May 9, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::It's gone. As for El Ninos, yea, they sometimes have very nasty storms, but it's usually just 1 or 2 storms, and I think it's safe to assume for now that more storms will stay at sea than not. With that said, the saying I use for El Nino's is that anything can happen. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:12, May 10, 2014 (UTC) Aoi:Old GFS system #2 GFS has been showing this before 90E even happened. It went off a few days ago when it moved over Central America (typical of models), but now are bullish in sending a hurricane somewhat near Central America around the 15th. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:12, May 10, 2014 (UTC) :It's still not on the TWO yet but it's being mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion: :LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP :WIND EVENT AND AN EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE PREDICTED BY :GFS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT :WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT REACHING GALE FORCE WED AND/OR THU...THE :MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT ON WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OCCUR. :THOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS :AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE ECMWF IS :DEVELOPING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL :CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. :Hopefully we will see early-season Amanda from this, though its a bit early to tell. Steve820 17:53, May 10, 2014 (UTC) ::It's not being monitored anymore, Amanda might have to come a bit later I guess. Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) 91.E INVEST Aoi:Amanda Chance #3 Yea, shot #2 is gone, but here we have our third chance. Euro blew this into a major a few runs ago. GFS shows either a TS or hurricane, depending on run. CMC also shows a hurricane. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:20, May 16, 2014 (UTC) :Now at 10%/20%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 12:53, May 16, 2014 (UTC) 91E.INVEST 30%/50% and invest'd. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:54, May 16, 2014 (UTC) : Interesting, it looks like we could see Amanda from this, but it will be heading out to sea. 'Ryan1000' 02:32, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::Some models bring it towards the coast. I think a see route is more likely though. Still too early to tell. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:51, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::GFS is wanting to bring it closer to shore, but not as a very strong storm if it does so. BTW, now 40%/60%. 'Ryan1000' 11:14, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :::::That's actually the blob at 95W apparently. Down to 40%/50%. Another bust?? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 11:40, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yes, conditions are getting less favorable for development. AndrewTalk To Me 11:51, May 17, 2014 (UTC) We'll see how the computer models handle this condition change. They are still looking at a TS or minimal hurricane in the days ahead from this system. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:21, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :TAM, that's not 91E! That's the blob behind it. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 16:38, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :::Now down to 30%/40%. Yeah, this is a bust, I don't expect it to become Amanda by now. 'Ryan1000' 19:01, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::Actually, it still has a chance, but I also think this'll become another big bust. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable, and in a couple days, conditions could become hostile. So maybe Amanda might have to come a bit later :( Steve820 19:55, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :::::Down to 20% (30%). Yeah, this is gonna be another bust. No Amanda here, hopefully our first named storm will come before June 1. Steve820 00:02, May 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::There is still winds of near gale force to the system's east. Unless it abruptly develops, this system does not have a chance. The probability of development has fallen to '''20%' for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 13:55, May 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Still 20/20. Won't form though. And the next system behind, the GFS has in fantasy land. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 18:22, May 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Oh c'mon EPac, stop being so lazy and produce Amanda soon! Do I have to pull out my massive wind shear sucker machine?! Steve820 21:08, May 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Lol, it's only May 18 and El Nino years tend to have late activity stars. To be fair, this system has winds of 30 knts and a TCFA. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 22:26, May 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::0/0. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 19:03, May 19, 2014 (UTC) 01E.AMANDA Aoi:Amanda Try #4 GFS has been showing this for days. Likely fantasy, but is a 0/20 on the NHC. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:24, May 19, 2014 (UTC) :Looks like we have a new lemon. 10/20% YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:19, May 20, 2014 (UTC) ::Hopefully ''this will become Amanda. In fact, it seems to actually have potential according to what the TWO says: "Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a gradual development of this system over the next several days". Unfavorable conditions shouldn't rip it apart anytime soon, so we might see Amanda from this even though it'll probably be a weak TS. In fact, it would be damn awesome if we actually had Boris before June 1, since there are only a couple weeks until June 1st arrives. Steve820 01:59, May 20, 2014 (UTC) :::I don't think it'll happen. Notice how they only give it a 20% shot in 5 days. Normally, when they give something a 10% chance, the 4 day prob is much higher. And we won't get 2 storms before June 1; we're due for a break after back to back years of 2 May tropical cyclones. Did I mention how El Ninos tend to have late starts? YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:56, May 20, 2014 (UTC) 92E.INVEST Invest'd and up to 10/30%. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:38, May 20, 2014 (UTC) :Now code orange. 30%/50% now. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:48, May 22, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-E Upgraded!!! Here we go!!!! :D :D Where is everyone? YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:09, May 22, 2014 (UTC) : Probably typing at the same time as I am...can't wait for this to become a storm.Isaac829 21:11, May 22, 2014 (UTC) : Will probably become Amanda but nothing too strong.I believe a moderate to strong ts or even a minimal hurricane before it weakens.Allanjeffs 21:49, May 22, 2014 (UTC) ::: I'm still here, but don't expect many others to be as this year is, by now, definitely going to be an El Nino year, where the Atlantic will be quiet, now according to NOAA as well. They're expecting 8-13 storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 majors, and ACE to be 40-100% of the 1981-2010 mean. Anyways, back to this, I'm expecting it to become Amanda, possibly even a minimal hurricane according to some of the dynamic models like HWRF or GFDL, but it'll remain out to sea either way. 'Ryan1000' 23:18, May 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::Yay, we got a new depression! Hopefully it becomes Amanda by tonight. I predict a peak of around 60-65 mph with a tiny shot at hurricane status, and the NHC takes it up to 55 kts (65 mph). And YE, your EPAC bias looks very strong right there. Don't get '''too' excited EPac lover, it's just a tiny depression we're looking at that could become a strong TS. Nothing more. Steve820 23:38, May 22, 2014 (UTC) :::::(edit conflict) I hope this becomes fairly strong, I've gained two friends named Amanda over the past few months. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:40, May 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::::This definitely has the potential to be strong, but then again many other storms early in the season never lived up to their forecasts. There will quite some time for Amanda to strengthen, so its intensity will be open to discussion until then. I think Amanda will be kind of hit and miss but it could become a hurricane. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:01, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Steve, wow, didn't take very long for that subject to come up (just 3 hours after the 1st storm forums). It's just exciting when the 1st storm of the season forms, especially unexpectedly. (I was in school when it was raised to 60%/70%). Granted, the fact NOAA released its forecast of 14-20/6-11/6-3 storms (most aggressive ever), and a 50% chance of above normal activity. As for lack of activity, now everyone's showed up :P I guess we're behind a couple hours than the the others forums. Word was out on Wunderground, Americanwx, and Storm2k before I posted here. Amanda could be one of those systems that weaken unexpectedly, but it could become a hurricane as well. Either way, it's no threat to land. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:18, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::::Yay! The season has started hopefully it isn't boring (I'm looking at ''YOU ''2013!). :::::::::::::::This storm looks decent on satellite imagery. It is probably going to be a TS soon, but I don't know about it being a hurricane just yet. :::::::::::::::Oh crap, Wunderground said that "NOAA has predicted a quiet season in the atlantic" :::::::::::::::NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.....leeboy100 (talk) 12:24, May 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::Why did you indent so much and not sign your post? And please don't mention the ATL in the EPAC forum. As for 2013 PHS, that season honestly wasn't that bad. It had a lot of systems. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:58, May 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::Sorryleeboy100 (talk) 12:24, May 23, 2014 (UTC) New advisory summary: slight shearing, gradual intensification, some ambiguity on strength towards mid next week, not expected to rapidly dissipate. No changes in wind and pressure. And yeah, 2013 wasn't boring at all, a lot of record were broken that year. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:13, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :Peak expected to be around 60 knts by the NHC, up form 55 at the first package. Given it looks pretty good, (I'm slightly surprised it's still 25 knts, when an ASCAT pass went with 30 knts and has a low bias, but that was a while ago) I'm thinking the odds of becoming a hurricane are slowly increasing. Conditions should be good for a few days at least. I don't think it'll bomb out, conditions don't look that good, though it's already surprised us once. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 04:30, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::Still a depression, probably will be a TS later today. Intensified slightly to 35/1006 from 30/1007. 'Ryan1000' 09:17, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::So, I have to go to work soon and I expect this to be a storm when I get back later today, also about my previous posts, it was just the atlantic that was boring last year, I agree with all of you, the 2013 PHS was not boring, also YE I'll try to keep the Atlantic posts in the the Atlantic from now on. leeboy100 (talk) 12:29, May 23, 2014 (UTC) ::leeboy100talk ::: Okay getting back on topic, this depression is forecast to have winds of 70 MPH in four days, so we can't rule out this becoming a hurricane leeboy100(talk) 12:41, May 23, 2014 (UTC) You realize there is an NIO forum, right? :P YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:01, May 23, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Amanda She is here and expected to become a hurricane. Hope she becomes strong as Amanda sounds like a strong name.Allanjeffs 15:08, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::Gah! Beat me to it Allan...anyways, NHC forecasts a C1 now, before weakening and dying well out to sea. 'Ryan1000' 15:10, May 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::Held at 35 knts at 21z. Expect to peak around 70 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:01, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::A-HA I knew this thing would be a storm. Oh, and yes I know there is an NIO forum I don't know if I'm allowed to update though. leeboy100 (talk) 21:06, May 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::You are :P YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:31, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Amanda's still at 40 mph (35 kts) and should reach hurricane status by Sunday. NHC takes it up to 70 kts (80 mph) by 1800Z on May 26. I hope it becomes a hurricane so we'll have 3 back-to-back years of May hurricanes (Bud in 2012, Barbara in 2013, and Amanda in 2014)! This might be the start of an incredibly active Pacific season due to El Nino, stay tuned. Steve820 22:54, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::It's wrapping up nicely. On a trivia note, Amanda's formation marks the 13th time in 15 years a tropical storm has formed in May. Last two years without a May system: 2009 and 2011. Interestingly enough, in 2012, and 2013, there were 2 May systems. Since 2007 also had 2 May systems, in the last 15 May's, there have been 16 systems. Average of a little over 1 per year. Also worth noting that May systems were slightly rare pre-1995. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:42, May 23, 2014 (UTC) I was about to mention a few records myself, looks like you beat me to some of them YE. We all know that 2012-2013 was the first time two storms formed in the EPac in May for two straight years, and 2012 was the only year in history in which two storms formed in May in both the Atlantic and East Pacific in the same year. However, on top of that, if Amanda becomes a hurricane, like Steven mentioned, it'll be the third year in a row with a hurricane in May in the EPac. There has only been one other time in history in which a hurricane formed in the EPac in May for 3 straight years, which was 2000, 2001, and 2002 (Aletta, Adolph, and Alma, respectively). The models are a bit enthusiastic and the long-range forecasts for some of them see an early-season TS in the Atlantic moving into Florida or up the east coast, and possibly a storm or two following Amanda. The next few weeks are gonna be interesting. (Gah, forgot to log in) 'Ryan1000' 00:00, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :ATCF brings it up to 45 knots. It's continuing to get more organized, and some models bring it to Cat 2 status. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:10, May 24, 2014 (UTC) ::50 knts now. Expected to peak at 85 knts. It won't become a major IMO due to dry air. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:44, May 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::Intensified a bit quickly due to it's small circulation, but I agree YE, I think cat 2 will be its peak if anything. A major seems a bit too farfetched for this one. 'Ryan1000' 03:13, May 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Now 65/994. Forecast peak raised to 105 mph. 'Ryan1000' 11:30, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Up to 65 knts via ATCF right before the blackout. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 13:38, May 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::She might make it to major hurricane status if this trends continue.Allanjeffs 14:35, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::I'm starting to think it will happen actually. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 14:38, May 24, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Amanda Yay!--Isaac829 14:42, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :Forecast peak brings it to 100 knots. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:04, May 24, 2014 (UTC) ::Hooray, she did it!! I can't believe we could be looking at a major hurricane soon. That's just insane knowing that when it first formed I only predicted a strong TS. BTW, where is Andrew? Steve820 15:09, May 24, 2014 (UTC) ::This lady reminds me of sir Bud of 2012 if she gets to MH which I am rooting for she will be the 4th to do it Along with Adolph,Alma and Bud.Allanjeffs 18:32, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :::Sorry, I have been real busy lately. Anyway, it is nice to see the EPac start with a bang. Its eye is becoming very apparent on satellite imagery, and it still has some time to intensify before encountering wind shear. However, cold water upwelling will slow down intensification, so Amanda will have a stretch to bridge to reach major hurricane intensity. NHC intensity: 80 knots (90 mph, 130 km/h)/987 mbar (hPa; 29.15 inHg). JTWC intensity: 70 knots (80 mph) gusting to 85 knots (100 mph). In the next 36 hours, Amanda is forecast to head northwards towards Mexico due to a trough. What a way to kick off this season! Alma (2002) 2.0! AndrewTalk To Me 23:11, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :::HOORAY!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 23:37, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :::Also, this could be a major hurricane. :::YAY!!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 23:38, May 24, 2014 (UTC) :::This is what I like to see a good-looking hurricane that won't affect land. This is a great start to the season. leeboy100 (talk) 23:40, May 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::Looks like it's RI'ing right now. I'm personally expecting a category 2 next advisory, wouldn't be surprised to see a MH in two hours or so either. T-numbers are approaching 5.0 as we speak. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:19, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::It's been RI'ing for about a day, save a brief period of unarrested development. I'd go with 85 knts. Raw T's up to 6.3 YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:40, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I am going with 100 or 95 knts next advisory, as soon as the pinhole eye clears out, I see no reason it wouldn't be a category 4. I am going to predict a peak of upper-end category 4, and I believe there is even an outside chance of cat-5. Amanda will be fun to track. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:43, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::I agree with HS on intensity. Amanda looks even more impressive than when I left. This is remarkable, but IMO, it won't make it to Cat 5. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:18, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Amanda is intensifying faster than anyone expected.She would probably be upgrade to upper cat 3 or low cat 4 at the 2am adv and she has an outside chance of becoming a cat 5 if this trends continues.Remember people Amanda is a strong name in spanish so it would be cool if she symbolize it.Allanjeffs 02:34, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Adv out, 100kts, expected to peak at 110 kts. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC) Major Hurricane Amanda Whoo!--Isaac829 02:41, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :Eh, what else should I have expected out of the EPac...storms can intensify much farther past where they were initially forecast to in this part of the world. It's not like this hasn't happened before, but I think cat 3 will be it's peak at this point. Nice to see the EPac this much in action this early. What an amazing Amanda. 'Ryan1000' 02:44, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::65 knots in 30 hours!!! WOW, that's not RI IMO, it is EI. Amazing!!! :D :D :D This ties Bud 12 as the earliest major in the EPAC proper. 4th EPAC May major overall. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:47, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Truly a miracle. I never expected Amanda to become a major this quick. 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg). And not only that, based on Dvorak estimates, the NHC has said even 100 knots is being conservative. YE, Bud became a MH earlier than Amanda per the latest NHC forecast discussion. Now, while 110 knots is the forecast peak, is there any chance she could become Hitler's girlfriend (i.e. become a C4)? AndrewTalk To Me 03:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::Amanda's arguably the second fastest I've seen a storm deepen. After Jimena 09. It even rivals Rick 09, Celia 10, and Felicia 09's EI. WOW. This is shocking for May 24!!! That's the most impressive thing. I'd be shocking anytime of year, but given how early it is and how El Ninos tend to be late activity starters. WOW!! I am speechless, so much I can't type right now :P YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:27, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::Same here! leeboy100 (talk) 03:32, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::I was gone for three hours and this is a cat. 3!?!?!?! :::I'm impressed :::leeboy100 (talk) 03:20, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Amanda isn't forecasted to strengthen any higher according to wunderground. But she might surprise us again. like, maybe becoming a category 5. :::leeboy100 (talk) 03:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::I'm going to bed, so let's see how strong it will get while I sleep, it is currently, 115 MPH and 966 MB. leeboy100 (talk) 04:04, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Ryan she is intensifying faster than anyone predict and I strongly believe she is going to peak at middle to upper cat 4 before she is done.Allanjeffs 04:20, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::Raw T has hit 7...Category 5 is now possible...--Isaac829 04:45, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Boy, this is incredible. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:11, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::If anyone is still awake, this thing is now a 120 kt, 946mb hurricane. It is the second recorded cat-4 May hurricane and the earliest to attain so. Amanda could very well shatter Adolph's records as it has ~ 18 more hours before hitting shear. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 08:43, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::And if that does not cut it, both the NHC and JTWC expect even more intensification from Amanda, as it is still in a favorable enviornment. Their forecast peak: 125 knots (145 mph). Given the rate of deepening in Amanda, 2 mbar per hour, I personally predict a peak of ~140 knots (160 mph)/935 mbar (hPa). Also of note is the current size - gale-force winds extend only 80 miles from the center, AndrewTalk To Me 10:14, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Also, a little ACE check: Amanda's ACE of 4.15 is higher than a number of storms in the 2013 PHS, including both Flossie and Manuel. AndrewTalk To Me 10:19, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::This is now the earliest cat 4 in the pacific leeboy100 (talk) 12:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Good call on that. But this storm is so mindblowing. A Cat 4 in May!!!! Never in my widlest dreams I thought it would happen this year. WOW!!! YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 11:12, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Wow, looks like Amanda shoved my words down my throat again. Now it's the second-strongest may hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific, only 5 mph and 6 mbars behind Adolph in 2001, and it's still moving slowly. It very well might have a shot at category 5 strength. I'm truly impressed, I never thought this thing would explode as quickly as it did. Now, I officially hope it becomes a cat 5, since it has a decent chance for it. 'Ryan1000' 11:27, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Rapid intensification? I believe the correct term for storms that get this strong this quick is 'explosive deepening' (I say that because it sounds dramatic) This is away from the shear and the cold water, so, it has a chance of becoming a cat.5 maybe even in the next advisory due to the, well, explosive deepening (I like saying that :P ) leeboy100 (talk) 12:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::This isn't RI. This is EI (explosive intensification). I think they'll go with 125 knots at the next advisory package. It may have been leaked out already via Twitter: Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Amanda appears to be breaking most of the earliest strongest EPac records. Details to come... Also, worth noting that Stewart is likely on since he did the 12z EPAC TWO. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:54, May 25, 2014 (UTC) EP, 01, 2014052512, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1111W, 135, 932, HU!!!! OMFG!!!!! I can't belive this. Holy crap ATCF brings it to 135 knots!!!!! HOLY CRAP!!!!! WOW!!!!!!!! I can not believe this. This is stunning. WOW!!!! Never though in my wildest dreams this would happen. 135 KNOTS in may!!! YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 13:25, May 25, 2014 (UTC) WOW!!!!! The university of Wisconsin estimates that Amanda has winds of at least 155 MPH, this may already be a Cat.5 the first in the EPAC in 4 years! leeboy100 (talk) 14:05, May 25, 2014 (UTC) Also, notice how we haven't had a cat 5 in the WPAC yet. Has this happened before? Have we had a storm reach cat 5 in the EPAC before a storm reached cat 5 in the WPAC?!?! leeboy100 (talk) 14:08, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :(edit conflict) Well THIS was quite a pleasant surprise to wake up to. Go Amanda, go!!! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:09, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :Sorry about the editing conflict Dylan, and agreed, GO AMANDA!!!!!!!. More information on the storm, interestingly enough, wunderground predicts this storm to stay the same strength, but this has a high chance of being a cat.5. In fact it might be upgraded in the next advisory. Also I have to leave now to go to a doctor's appointment and I won't be back until after the next advisory. So, if this ''DOES ''become a Cat. 5 , well ,I'll probably be the last one to report it. leeboy100 (talk) 14:19, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :I'm so excited I'm making it sound like it's a cat 5 already, but nope still a 4. leeboy100 (talk) 14:20, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::Adv will be out soon. If this becomes a Cat 5, it'll be the first in May. Easily shattering Ava as the earliest Cat 5 on record. But yes, we've had a Cat 5 happened in the EPAC before the WPAC. See also: 2010. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 14:28, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::135/932! Fuhrer Hitler, you are done as the EPAC's strongest May storm! AndrewTalk To Me 15:00, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::No worries Leeboy. Come on Amanda, you got this girl! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:02, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Not much of a chance to become a Cat 5 now...--Isaac829 15:03, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yeah... cold upwelling from Amanda's slow movement will probably do it in. Post-analysis, maybe...? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:26, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::It has one more short IMO. The waters below it aren't that cold. I don't think it'll be updated in post-anlysis. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Oh my! I imagine she could strength. I am happy she just need 5 more miles and she will be the earliest cat 5 in history for the Epac, and if she can't maybe post analysis will show that she peak at cat 5.Allanjeffs 16:00, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Holy shit! OMFG! Wow! I can't believe Amanda did this!!! Last time I checked on Amanda yesterday, it was only a Category 2 but now IT'S ALMOST A CATEGORY 5!!! Just...wow. That is absolutely insane now that it's the strongest May hurricane ever! Amanda, please strengthen to Cat. 5 status! You can do it!! :) Steve820 17:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Don't get too excited, Steven. Cussing is not allowed here. However, it is sad to report this beast is near its peak. Cold upwelling has been reported near Amanda's center, and if it is going to reach C5 intensity, it better do so in the next advisory. Cloud tops as cold as -75 degrees Celsius surround the eye. I wonder what is next in store for this beast. It is slated to turn northwards soon. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::It is moving northward right now Andrew, at 2 mph. It still has some time to become a cat 5 before weakening, but NHC says upwelling may have already taken place, which may also be indicated by Amanda's slightly weakened appearance on sattelite imagery. If it does become a category 5, it would be the earliest category 5 in the basin, almost two weeks before Ava in 1973. It would also make this year one of only a few years where the EPac had a cat 5 before the WPac (1973, 2010, and 1994 are also examples of such leeboy). 'Ryan1000' 18:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) Steven had every right to be excited. However, it's past it's peak now. Weakening is occurring. It may be ERC'ing to. Still, this was one f**k of a system. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:29, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :Andrew, what's wrong with being excited, especially if a storm pulls an extreme surprise on us? I've also cussed before, but no one's ever said "Cussing is not allowed here" to me before. Anyway, Amanda is probably the biggest EPac surprise since Kenneth in 2011, in my honest opinion. This storm is just really amazing! Sadly we might not see a Cat. 5 out of this, but there's still an outside shot of it happening IMO. Steve820 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::I'd say it's a bigger surprise the Kenneth. At least Kenneth looked like for several days it could bomb out. Amanda did not. I didn't think the system would form until 12 hours before it did, I don't have a problem with getting excited over a powerful system; I do with a weaker/deadly system, but not something like this. Storms like this make the EPAC amazing. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 19:03, May 25, 2014 (UTC) ::NO!!!! SHE CAN BECOME A CAT 5 YOU JUST HAVE TO BELIEVE AND CHEER HER ON! GO AMANDA GO! GO AMANDA GO! leeboy100 (talk) 19:57, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::There's no turning back. It's down to 130 knts now via ATCF. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:01, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::'NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO'OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooo! Awwww. I wanted a cat 5. leeboy100 (talk) 20:11, May 25, 2014 :::(UTC) :::Oh, and thank you YE and Ryan1000 for answering my question. :) leeboy100 (talk) 20:14, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::We'll have another shot at 5 by August. Maybe July if the next MJO pulse is epic. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] :::: (edit conflict) The CDO of Amanda has become less organized and the eye is bcoming more disorganized and pinhole like, indicating an ERC. Sorry, Leeboy, Amanda is down to 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h)/935 mbar (hPa; 27.61 inHg), but remains at 135 knots (155 mph) per the JTWC. She is nevertheless a hurricane that will live in infamy. As me and several others mentioned above, Adolph is no longer the strongest EPAC May TC after 13 years. AndrewTalk To Me 20:53, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Aww man! I was really rooting for a Category 5 earlier. Looks like our Category 5 (if we even get one) will have to wait, and like YE said, it'll probably come during August or if the MJO pulse is epic, July. I'm personally thinking we'll see a Category 5 in August or September. Steve820 21:24, May 25, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Mine: *All - 0% --Isaac829 21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC) YE's: Amanda: 1% since it was epic. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --'Dylan''' (Hurricane 99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC) I agree with Dylan. It's '''way '''too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways: *Amanda: 0.1% - Didn't affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record, these factors earn it a bonus 0.1%! Steve820 21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC))